The unilateral declaration of independence in Kosovo is generally expected for the coming weekend or maybe Monday 18. The positions of Serbia and Russia are, of course, well-known. Even if Serbia has declared that war is not an option, it is of course conceivable that Albanian violence against Serb minorities may result in armed protective action from Belgrade. Serbia has also declared that the EU “police force” -to which Sweden contributes 100 persons- will be regarded as invaders.
As is well known, the EU has not been able to agree on a united policy towards Kosovo. A group of countries with the UK, Germany and France in the lead will immediately recognize the independence. Romania, Slovaka and Cyprus will not recognize Kosovo. Spain, the Czech Republic and Greece are unwilling to recognize Kosovo’s independence but may eventually do so.